We’re almost there, everybody: After a long, cold, frustratingly slow offseason, MLB’s regular season begins on Wednesday, March 20, with the Dodgers and Padres squaring off in Seoul (the 28 other teams will get things started on Thursday, March 28). With precious little time to go until Opening Day, now is the time to start cranking up your fantasy baseball drafts — and we’re here to be your one-stop shop for all things draft prep. We just recently unveiled our top 300 overall for redraft leagues in 2024, as well as dynasty rankings, top prospects to know and full previews — including sleepers and busts — at every position.
Now, though, we want to zoom out a bit. Sure, everyone wants to know which specific players they should be targeting in drafts. But you know what they say about teaching a man to fish, and so we’ve put together a few broad rules for fantasy managers to live by — ways that you can maneuver through your draft with confidence, no matter what obstacles may come your way. Ready for our secrets to success?
Rule 1: Free yourself from the tyranny of early-round pitching
Starting pitchers are sort of like the running backs of fantasy baseball. They’re the backbone of any successful fantasy team, but they come with substantially more risk than any other position, and everyone’s got their own theory on how to approach them come draft time. Me personally? Unless I’m in something like a draft and hold or NL-/AL-only league, I tend to punt top starters, generally dipping in for my first around pick 50 or so.
The reason is simple: It’s a volatile position, and unlike running backs, there are so many pitchers to choose from each year. There’s a perception of scarcity that drives many starting pitching strategies, but one look at recent history puts a lie to that idea. If you want to pass up a five-category hitter to burn a first-round pick on Gerrit Cole or Spencer Strider, be my guest, but time and again we see cheaper pitchers come out of nowhere and expensive ones blow up in their owners’ faces. To wit: Last year, you could’ve had Sonny Gray, Justin Steele, Kodai Senga, Jesus Luzardo and Chris Bassitt and not drafted one starter before 50th overall. Is that cherry picking? Sure, but it the point still stands that there’s a ton of value to be had both later in drafts and on the waiver wire.
If you’re burning significant early draft capital on starters, there’s huge opportunity cost; you’re putting your lineup at a disadvantage relative to the rest of your league by passing up hitters that have a broad base of skills you simply won’t find in the middle and later rounds. But if you focus on giving yourself a solid, five-category foundation with hitters early, there will still be plenty of intriguing pitchers to choose from later on — guys whose profiles don’t look all that different from the ones taken many rounds earlier.
Rule 2: A balanced approach to steals
The rule changes MLB implemented ahead of last season were intended to goose scoring and let hitters run wild on the bases, and boy, did they ever get the result they were after. The number of stolen bases across the league last year was the most since 1987, representing about a 40 percent increase from 2022. You see this at the top of drafts, where we’ve never seen such massive stolen base contributions, all at the same, from players whose bats alone would put them in first-round consideration — 30/30 potential is basically table stakes to get into that conversation now. But you also see it in the middle and later stages of draft. We saw 51 players steal at least 20 bases last year. The last time we’d hit that number was 1989 — heck, the last time there were even 40 was 2013. In 2022, there were 24. In 2021, there were just 19.
That’s a sea change, and it obviously has an effect on how you approach your drafts. You still need to hit a number for steals, and that number is larger than it was when steals were relatively rare. But because so many more players are capable of providing at least some speed, the urgency has been greatly reduced. You’ll have your shot in the middle rounds with players like Joshua Lowe, Ha-seong Kim, Bryson Stott and Andres Gimenez, and that’s hardly an exhaustive list. All stole at least 30 bases last year and made substantive contributions in other categories, but none is being drafted inside the top 80, on average.
Which brings me back to the advice above: Don’t feel like you need to take an all-or-nothing approach to the category. Balance is the name of the game here, and while you can of course emphasize steals a bit more if you feel a little light, don’t hit the panic button — a stolen-base specialist like, say, Esteury Ruiz, who costs you in every other category, is now an unnecessary evil and, therefore, harder to justify. Try your best to make sure that you’re balancing every power-heavy pick with someone who brings more speed. Drafted Pete Alonso early? Maybe target Bryson Stott or Thairo Estrada later on, who will give you 30-steal upside without tanking you elsewhere.
Rule 3: Get aggressive finding your closers
There are far more established closers right now than there were at this time last year, or any year in the recent past. But don’t confuse that relative stability with a wealth of premium save options. In 2013, there were 42 players who notched 4+ saves. Last year, it was 64. And the stat is harder than ever to address on the waiver wire: Only 11 non-incumbents notched 9+ saves last year; as recently as 2021, that number was 18.
The upshot is that, while you don’t need to go completely crazy for saves in your drafts, you do need to be proactive — the surety provided by top closers is a rare and valuable thing. As recently as a few years ago, I’d advise drafters to grab their first closer around pick 120. Now, though, I’m grabbing a closer before I leave the top 100, then one more between 100 and 200. Again, you don’t have to grab the cream of the crop. You’ll do fine with, say, Jordan Romano and Kenley Jansen. Or Camilo Doval and Ryan Helsley. Or Jhoan Duran and Adbert Alzolay. Just get one rock solid closer and one guy who hopefully keeps the job all year — plus maybe one more flier at the end.
Rule 4: Wait on catcher ... then wait some more
This has been my approach at catcher forever, but never has it been more obvious than it is in 2024. Especially in one-catcher leagues, wait as long as you feel comfortable, then wait a couple rounds more. Paying a premium at catcher has always been a risky strategy, but was occasionally justified when there was a significant statistical advantage to be had. With so much depth at the position now, though, that statistical advantage is all but gone. Here are the players currently being taken directly before and after Adley Rutschman, the first catcher off the board: Luis Robert, Cody Bellinger and Rutschman’s Orioles teammate, Gunnar Henderson. That’s a 38/20 player, a 26/20 player and a 28/10 player. And we’re going to pass on that sort of four-/five-category production in lieu of ... a guy who just went 20/1/.277? Sure, Rutschman offers safety and volume, but is that really worth paying such a premium for? You can find a ton of catchers who are good bets to hit 15-20 homers with a batting average between .250-.260, and the gap in counting stats simply doesn’t seem worth what you’re giving up in opportunity cost.
